Prime Minister Stephen Harper speaks in this file photo. Photo: Darren Calabrese/The Canadian Press No one knows what Stephen J. Harper will do. Nobody knows whether the prime minister will call an election early in 2015, for example, to slip a campaign through before Mike Duffy’s trial begins in April. And nobody knows when the PM will take his walk in the snow.
Should he fight and lose the next election, it’s reasonable to assume Harper will quit. Should he be reduced to a minority, the clock will start ticking in earnest. There is no pressure on him now to leave. There is no movement within his party, secret or open, to force him to consider doing so, that I am aware of.
What we can say for certain, though, is that his party is in the early stages of succession machinations. That makes this election pre-season different from previous ones. Contenders for the post-Harper Conservative leadership will be framing everything they say and do from now till election day in this light, as well as that of the campaign immediately at issue.
So, who are they?
Jason Kenney: Now minister of employment and multiculturalism, the Calgary-based MP is widely deemed to be among the government’s most capable ministers, and the front-runner to succeed Harper. As the Ipsos-Reid data set from May 2, 2011 showed (read Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson’s The Big Shift for a summary), the Conservative majority reached on that election day was built on an appeal to immigrants and Roman Catholics. Kenney was key in both cases. He is a single workaholic who has never bungled a major file. Last spring, he defused a potentially debilitating controversy over temporary foreign workers by, de facto, crushing the program. His forays in the Commons are invariably confident and informed.
Peter MacKay: Currently minister of justice and attorney general, the MP from Nova Scotia is always front and centre when succession talk arises, mainly because of his role as a co-founder of the modern Conservative party. MacKay has never been a Red Tory, particularly, but he’s considered the next best thing in a party dominated by more doctrinaire Alberta-based conservatives. He is the minister most closely tied to the implosion of the F-35 procurement in 2012, but has not been hurt by a major controversy since. There has been speculation that his devotion to his wife, Nazanin Afshin-Jam, and their young son, Kian, may have dulled his appetite for the crush of leadership politics. The smart money, however, says he remains in the mix.
Lisa Raitt: Smart, personable, capable and well-liked by all sides in the House of Commons — which in the toxic environment of current-day Ottawa is no small feat. She handled a number of tricky labour situations, most notably at Canada Post, with aplomb during her stint in that ministry. In the House of Commons she avoids partisan tomfoolery, sticking instead to providing answers that, more often than not, make sense. The MP for Halton, Raitt has impeccable Ontario populist credentials, coming as she does from a union family. For all these reasons, she has been touted both as a potential future Ontario Conservative leader, and potential federal Tory leader.
James Moore: The B.C. MP’s name remains in the front rank of those who may have a shot at leadership. A former radio talk show host, Moore is bilingual, under 40 and managed to stickhandle his way through a stint at Heritage without becoming despised by the CBC and cultural establishment. As Minister of Industry, he has staked his chips on representing consumers’ interests — a smart gambit, if he can be seen to deliver results. Moore also previously worked his way through a term as Harper’s House of Commons enforcer, without tarnishing his own brand — no easy task, as Paul Calandra can attest.
Tony Clement: The former Ontario health minister made his bones a decade ago with his competent handling of the SARS crisis of 2003. Now heading the Treasury Board, Clement is essentially minister of parsimony, charged with denying other ministries’ requests. Yet while at Treasury, Clement has developed a reputation for quiet efficiency, offsetting the field day had by the opposition, largely at his expense, during the G20 controversy in 2010. As an MP from north-central Ontario, he can be expected to capitalize on the Conservatives’ reliance on rural and northern Ontario seats, as a linchpin of their Ontario-Alberta coalition. Clement is one of a small number of Tory ministers who is comfortable with social media and is able to speak his mind unscripted, without courting disaster.
Michelle Rempel: Just 34, a junior minister (of state for western economic diversification) and Calgary MP Rempel has time, savvy, ambition, charisma to burn and is often mentioned as a rising star in the party. A Rempel leadership run would be a long shot for victory this time but could build a base of support for her ahead of a subsequent run.
Chris Alexander: The former diplomat is a relative newcomer to politics, having been elected for the first time in 2011. However, he has an impeccable pre-political pedigree, is fluently bilingual, charismatic, articulate and combative. Alexander would be a formidable contender, should he choose to run.
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