Prime Minister Stephen Harper speaks in a file photo. Photo: THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck As Stephen Harper marked the ninth anniversary of his 2006 election victory on Friday, he had reason to be optimistic about the make-or-break year ahead.
His government is showing its age, but his caucus is united behind him, his party is rich and led by loyal veterans, and he faces two opponents who have never led a party through a campaign.
While a Conservative minority still looks like the most likely outcome of the next election — which would mean a disorderly departure for Harper — the prime minister likely hopes that the parliamentary sitting that begins Monday could improve his standing.
Much of the spring is likely to be taken up with anti-terror legislation. That should help the government, since people are scared and Harper will be taking action to allay their fears, whether or not those actions are sensible and proportionate to the threat.
Similarly, the government should benefit from debate about Canadian military action against ISIS, which enjoys broad support. While the opposition complains about “mission creep,” the Tories can emphasize that our troops are doing something that most Canadians support.
On economic issues, though, Harper looks vulnerable as never before, but it’s by no means clear that the opposition can convince Canadians that they would do a better job.
For years, Harper has missed no opportunity to portray himself as the only leader who can keep us from ruin, characterizing his rivals as unhinged crackpots with crazy schemes.
Harper has spent more than $100 million in tax dollars on advertisements promoting the Economic Action Plan, a transparently partisan expenditure aimed at inducing a pavlovian response from voters. Add all the cheque presentations, ribbon cuttings, speeches, interviews and party advertising and you have an almost decade-long communication effort that has succeeded in associating economic competence with Harper.
And the government has been able to point to repeated real successes. No western country weathered the 2008 financial crisis better than Canada.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper makes an announcement in a file photo. [THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette]
It looked like a winning formula until the price of oil collapsed. Suddenly, the Canadian dollar is worth 81 cents, employment in the oil patch is drying up and all our pipeline dreams seem much less vivid and exciting.
The income-splitting scheme that a month ago looked like a clever pre-election ploy suddenly seems unwise, and the government will find it harder to balance the books.
The Bank of Canada was forced to slash interest rates, giving the government some wiggle room but also pumping air into a housing bubble that would be ruinous if it bursts.
In London, Ont., for a pre-session caucus meeting in the key electoral battleground of southwestern Ontario, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau pointed out the government seems to be panicking.
“On Wednesday the finance minister said falling oil prices would have no effect on the budget but the very next day, on Thursday, he said, ‘Oh Wait. Yes. Actually they will, so much so that the budget is now delayed until April.’ They’re making it up as they go along. And let me tell you, I’m a teacher and their excuses are the political equivalent of ‘the dog ate my homework.’ ”
The only problem with this attack is the person delivering it. As Trudeau pointed out, he is a teacher. Is that the best qualification for running Canada’s economy? Trudeau’s CV is a thinner than any previous prime minister, and he has yet to lay out an economic plan.
Last week, NDP Leader Tom Mulcair laid out a more detailed, left-leaning plan, including higher corporate taxes and a national child care plan. Mulcair, who is now a distant third in the polls, seems to be trying to rally his base rather than selling himself as a steward for the economy.
On Thursday, at a news conference in St. Catharines, Harper looked better than either of them.
“The oil industry isn’t remotely the entire Canadian economy,” he said, reassuringly. “I’ve been through many of these price cycles in my political and economic career and I have every confidence that industry will weather the storm, I say with some difficulty.”
Note that he referred, as he often does, to his (nonexistent) economic career. The prime minister has an MA in economics but has never worked as an economist. But when Harper talks about the economy, he is the message. The show could be titled Reassuring Man Discusses The Economy.
It’s a strong message, and he’s a disciplined messenger, so much so that the opposition is hesitant to challenge him on this turf, preferring to talk about scandals, or bemoan his anti-democratic ways.
But to get rid of Harper, the opposition has to convince voters not that he is nasty or dishonest, but that he doesn’t know what he’s doing.
That looks like a hard job, but if they don’t do that they won’t win.
smaher@postmedia.com
@stphnmaher
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