Tampa Bay Rays
at Toronto Blue Jays
The series
Three games at Rogers Centre
Friday, 7:07 p.m. (SN One)
TB Blake Snell (0-2, 3.38) vs. TOR Marcus Stroman (2-2, 3.10)
Saturday, 1:07 p.m. (Sportsnet)
TB Matt Andriese (1-0, 3.86) vs. TOR Francisco Liriano (1-2, 4.58)
Sunday, 1:07 p.m. (SN One)
TB Chris Archer (2-1, 3.94) vs. TB Aaron Sanchez (0-1, 4.38)
The Blue Jays
Current record 6-16 (2-7 at home; 4-6 in last 10)
Projected wins 79 (FanGraphs); 76 (Baseball Prospectus)
This interactive chart tracks the Blue Jays’ rolling weighted on-base average, charting the peaks and valleys of 10-game segments throughout the season in comparison to the same data from 2016. For more on wOBA, follow this link.
Current 10-day disabled list SP Aaron Sanchez (right index finger blister, expected to come off DL to pitch Sunday); 3B Josh Donaldson (right calf); SP J.A. Happ (left elbow inflammation); SS Troy Tulowitzki (right hamstring strain). P Glenn Sparkman (fractured right thumb) and OF Dalton Pompey (concussion) have been transferred to the 60-day DL.
What’s to know Russell Martin continues to be the Blue Jays’ hitting star with seven hits, including two homers, and four walks in the last two series — and he only played in five of the seven games. He’s hitting .368 with a 1.184 OPS in that span … Jose Bautista was 4 for 10 with a walk (.400/.500/.500) in the Cardinals series … The Blue Jays offence has improved enough over the last 10 days so that it isn’t ranked last in most offensive categories but they are still in the bottom five in a lot of them, such as runs scored, strikeouts, batting average and on-base percentage. They are second last in OPS (.640), saved by Kansas City’s popgun offence (.587).
Blue Jays pitching is fourth from the bottom in the majors in WHIP (1.365) but top 10 in runners left on base (160) … Judging Blue Jays pitching on its own merit with FIP, the Jays are just above league average at 3.97 (compared to a 4.29 ERA) … The bullpen meltdown in Thursday’s first game was the last thing a struggling team needed, especially coming behind an unexpectedly good start from fill-in Mat Latos. That start would appear to give Latos the inside track on remaining in the rotation while J.A. Happ is on the DL … Sanchez is expected to return from his DL stint for a start on Sunday, which likely means Casey Lawrence returns to Buffalo. (Update: He was sent back on Friday and replaced by reliever Matt Dermody.)
Friday afternoon also brought an end to Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s tenure. He was designated for assignment and the Jays called up Luke Maile from the Buffalo. Maile had been claimed from the Rays at the end of spring training they put him on waivers. Saltalamacchia’s short stay no doubt extends the frustration of those Jays fans who pay attention to backup catcher output. Saltalamacchia was a crapshoot, like all veteran backup catcher signings. He had a magnificent April in 2016 with the Tigers, bashing some home runs, but the rest of his season looked something like his April with the Jays. He’s been through this before — he was dropped by the Marlins in early May in 2015 then signed with Arizona for the rest of the season.
The Rays
Current record 11-12 (2-8 on the road; 5-5 in last 10)
Projected wins 82 (FanGraphs); 83 (Baseball Prospectus)
Current 10-day disabled list OF Colby Rasmus (recovering from off-season hip surgery); SP Jake Odorizzi (left hamstring strain); RP Tommy Hunter (right calf strain); RP Xavier Cedeno (left forearm tightness); IF Matt Duffy (recovering from left heel surgery).
What’s to know The Rays arrive in Toronto after losing of two of three games in their previous two series against Houston and Baltimore … Tim Beckham has been the hottest Rays player over the last seven days, with 10 hits, including two homer runs, for a .435/.458/.826 slash line. Corey Dickerson has six hits in his last five games with a pair of homers … Kevin Kiermaier has just one hit, two walks and nine strikeouts in his last six games. That’s an about-face from the last time the Jays saw him when he was on base seven times in the four games at Tropicana Field … Tampa Bay has placed three pitchers on the disabled list in the last seven days (see above).
What’s wrong with Roberto Osuna?
The Blue Jays closer has been off all season, even dating back to his two appearances in the World Baseball Classic. So far for the Blue Jays, he’s blown three of his four save chances and allowed a run in the ninth inning of a tie game at home.
At the WBC, Osuna pitched the ninth inning of Mexico’s first pool game against Italy on March 9. With a 9-5 lead, he gave up doubles to Francisco Cervelli, Chris Colabello and Alex Liddi. A fielding error and a walk to Drew Maggi loaded the bases and ended Osuna’s night. Oliver Perez finished the collapse by allowing a pair of singles that scored the final two runs.
On March 12, Osuna did earn a save in an 11-9 win over Venezuela but the first two batters reached base (single by Alcides Escobar and a walk to Ender Inciarte) before he struck out Robinson Chirinos and got Jose Altuve to fly out to right field.
He didn’t pitch again in the WBC and was back in the Blue Jays came by March 16. He pitched six innings in major-league games during spring training, allowing two runs and five hits. Both runs came in the March 27 against Philadelphia, on a two-run homer by Tommy Joseph. Osuna then spent the early part of the season on the 10-day disabled list because of spasms in his upper back.
Osuna has yet to have a clean inning in his six appearances. He did get his only save April 19 against the Red Sox but gave up the first run the next night when Chris Sale battled Marco Estrada/Joe Biagini/Joe Smith to a 0-0 tie through eight innings. The Jays overcame Osuna’s run when Kendrys Morales his a solo homer in the bottom of the ninth off Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel before losing in the 10th.
After Thursday’s bullpen disaster in the first game of the doubleheader, Sportsnet analyst Gregg Zaun focused on Osuna with a couple of key points: that his fastball velocity is down and that he is spending too much time fiddling around five pitches when he should be concentrating on the three that make him special, his four-seam fastball, his slider and his changeup.
Osuna, in a brief interview shown on Sportsnet after Game 1, said he feels good physically and that be believes this is confounding run of bad luck, and he specifically mentioned that the runs he was allowing were coming with two outs. The tying home run by Randal Grichuk did come with two out and, in fact, four of the five runs he’s allowed have come with two out. Two-out runs don’t count as bad luck, although he has a case for the tying run he allowed on Tuesday, which scored on a weak broken-bat single by Dexter Fowler. The run he allowed against Baltimore on April 15 came when Welington Castillo reached on a weak tapper, a stolen base by pinch-runner Craig Gentry and two fly balls on which Gentry advanced a base each time.
However, there does appear to be validity to Zaun’s ideas. Here’s a chart of Osuna pitch usage, speed, outcome and movement over this career.
The speeds on his fastball variants (four-seam, sinker, cutter) are all down between one and two miles per hour over last season. His changeup is nearly 2 mph faster. As Zaun and other analysts would say, the greater the variance between fastball speeds and changeup speeds, the more effective the change will be.
Osuna’s pitch selection shows a steep drop in his primary pitch, the four-seam fastball, from 60 to 30 per cent, and a steep rise in his sinker usage, which he is using almost as much as his four-seamer. He’s also using more cutters and fewer sliders and changeups. Some of the change in pitch selection might be attributed to factors such as the count on the batter, but it is Zaun’s contention that Osuna’s four-seam fastball at 96 mph is too good for most hitters to contend with and should be his primary weapon, as it has been in the past. Resorting to “trickery” over power, as Zaun called it on Thursday, is a fool’s game.
Osuna shows fewer whiffs and more balls in play on his changeup and almost no missed swings on his sinker while the in-play percentage remains the same as in past years. His slider, despite the loss of velocity and less horizontal movement has induced 43 per cent whiffs.
Hitters are putting his four-seam fastball in play more often and they have a .571 average on those balls. His cutter, which he didn’t even throw when he arrived in 2015, has never been that effective, with a .429 opponents’ average last season and a .667 average this season.
Whether you like Zaun’s overall TV act or not, his experience as a major-league catcher gives him insight into the art of pitching that has made his analysis worth paying attention to. It would probably help Osuna to concentrate on limiting his pitch selection to his most effective pitches. What’s to be done about his dip in fastball speeds and his rise in changeup speed is a longer-term problem that will also need attention.
No comments:
Post a Comment