Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
The series
Four games at Rogers Centre
Thursday, 7:07 p.m. (Sportsnet One)
BAL Kevin Gausman (0-0, 5.40) vs. TOR Francisco Liriano (0-0, 135.00)
Friday, 7:07 p.m. (Sportsnet One)
BAL Wade Miley (0-0, 0.00) vs. TOR Aaron Sanchez (0-0, 1.29)
Saturday, 1:07 p.m. (Sportsnet 360)
BAL TBA vs. TOR Marco Estrada (0-1, 5.73)
Sunday, 1:07 p.m. (Sportsnet One)
BAL Dylan Bundy (1-1, 2.70) vs. TOR J.A. Happ (0-2, 5.40)
The Blue Jays
Current record 1-7
Projected wins 82 (FanGraphs); 78 (Baseball Prospectus)
Current 10-day disabled list RP J.P. Howell (left shoulder, eligible to return April 18); P Glenn Sparkman (fractured right thumb, possible late April return); OF Dalton Pompey (concussion from World Baseball Classic).
What’s to know Russell Martin got his first hit of the year on Wednesday, an eighth-inning double, so that death watch is over, mercifully … Marcus Stroman’s complete game loss on Wednesday was just the third time from 2010 to present that a pitcher has finished a game in 100 or fewer pitches, allowed two or fewer runs and lost. It happened to David Price in 2013 and to Ervin Santana last season. Price did it in a ruthlessly efficient 87 pitches; Santana needed 97. Stroman’s final out came on pitch No. 100 … In his analysis/criticism of Justin Smoak’s at-bat last night, Sportsnet’s Gregg Zaun was absolutely correct: as a pinch-hitter, Smoak has to be ready for the first good pitch he sees. The inside fastball he saw on the first pitch of the at-bat was the best pitch he was going to get and he wasn’t ready to make it happen. Smoak then started swinging wildly at bad pitches and his night was done with a weak strikeout … Kendrys Morales more-than-adequate efforts on defence on Wednesday make Smoak just that much more expendable … Presumably Smoak is safe for now. After his two home runs in the Buffalo Bisons opener, Rowdy Tellez is 2 for 15.
The Orioles
Current record 5-2
Projected wins 82 (FanGraphs); 75 (Baseball Prospectus)
Current 10-day disabled list P Chris Tillman (right shoulder bursitis); OF Joey Rickard (sprained finger, left hand).
What’s to know With ace Chris Tillman out of the rotation until May, Orioles manager Buck Showalter took advantage of early-season off days to ride Gausman, who starts the opener on Thursday. With three off days in the first eight days of the season, Thursday will be Gausman’s third start of the season already. Dylan Bundy will likely pitch Sunday, but Saturday is anyone’s guess. The Orioles have had April 15 marked for a while as the day they finally would need a fifth starter. They hoped someone would step forward with a good first start at Triple-A and then no one did. Perhaps a spot start from reliever Tyler Wilson, who made 13 starts last year? Otherwise, 24-year-old Dominican rookie Jayson Aquino appears to be the most likely option … Showalter didn’t have a lot of options for shielding his fifth starter until Tillman returns; the Orioles began the year with four straight series against AL East opponents, play three games in Cincinnati next week, then follow with four more series (13 games) against division opponents again … Slugger Chris Davis, he of the many strikeouts, has a hit in every game this season and is hitting .385. In his entire major league career he’s never had a season when he’s had more hits than strikeouts yet here he sits, on April 13, with 10 hits and nine Ks. Only 5 1/2 more months of this to break the streak … Catcher Welington Castillo, whom the Orioles settled on as their replacement when they decided to cut ties with Matt Wieters in the off-season, is hitting .409 so far … Closer Zach Britton put a lot of Blue Jays on base in the first series but he’s yet to allow a run in four appearances this year.
Opponent spotlight
Pitching to Adam Jones
GP PA Avg. OBP OPS HR RBI wOBA fWAR bWAR2016 overall 152 672 .265 .310 .746 29 83 .319 1.4 1.1 vs. Jays 16 75 .232 .293 .670 3 7 -- -- -- Career 1401 5771 .277 .318 .778 227 746 .336 27.2 28.8 vs. Jays 151 652 .275 .327 .808 32 82 -- -- -- wOBA—Weighted on-base averagefWAR—FanGraphs wins above replacementbWAR—Baseball Reference wins above replacement
Adam Jones, the Orioles centre fielder, is one of those players who looks great on the field and doesn’t look quite as awesome when you stare deeply into his stats page. The most egregious aspect is that he’s a four-time Gold Glove winner who profiles on the page as a mediocre defender. Jones has a grand total of zero defensive runs saved in more than 11 seasons in the majors. His early-career gains have been overtaken by later-career declines. Last season alone he had minus-1o Defensive Runs Saved. His 48 career runs saved with his arm are offset by 50 career runs lost by his range and his route-running.
Inside Edge, the keeper of degree-of-difficulty defensive statistics, shows Jones has made 4.0 per cent of catches that the average outfielder would make 1-10 per cent of time (called “Remote”). In about the same number of innings, Mike Trout has made 16 per cent of those types of plays. In the 10-40 per cent play range (labelled “Unlikely”), Jones has made 26.9 per cent of those catches. Alex Gordon is at 62.5 per cent. Despite these objective observations, commentators around baseball can’t help but laud Jones, with his smooth, lanky strides and sometimes sterling plays. His over-the-wall catch on teammate Manny Machado’s ball in the World Baseball Classic serves to burnish an undeserved reputation.
At the plate, Jones hit his peak from 2012-14, contributing a total of 14.7 offensive WAR (Baseball-Reference) in that period, but declined to 2.8 in 2015 and 2.1 last season. Despite 29 homers and 83 RBIs last season, he hit just .265 with a poor .310 on-base percentage and his .746 OPS was below league average. This season, he’s off to a very good start with a weighted on-base average near .400 thanks to two homers and two doubles among his eight hits. His solo home run on Wednesday in Baltimore’s 12-5 win over Boston helped chase Red Sox starter Steven Wright in the second inning.
This season, his 82.3 per cent contact rate is well above his career average. Pitchers have yet to challenge him with as many first-pitch strikes as he usually sees, and his whiff rate is just 10.3 per cent, also well below his 15.1 from last season.
Let’s look at how the Blue Jays worked against Jones in the first series of the season:
Jones reached base three times in nine plate appearances; he had a double and walk in the opener against Marco Estrada and hit a home run against J.A. Happ in the second game.
On the double (labelled 1.1), Estrada and catcher Russell Martin look like they were predictable in their pitch selection. After four fastballs (ball, swinging strike, ball, foul), Estrada threw his favourite out pitch, his changeup, once he got to two strikes. Even though the change up was down in the zone, Jones was able to line it down the left-field line. It was just the second hit Jones has had off Estrada in their 20 plate appearances.
The home run against Happ (labelled 2.2) is a good example of what’s plagued Happ so far this season: location mistakes. Happ already has 17 strikeouts and doesn’t appear to be far off his best efforts. He’s just made a small handful of mistakes that opponents have turned into runs. Which is not to say that pitchers can be or should be expected to achieve perfection, but with the Jays hitters slumping, every mistake pitch becomes magnified.
On the Jones homer, Happ challenged him inside with a 92-mph fastball but he left it up where Jones could get the barrel on the ball. Jones didn’t even hit it with much gusto; it left the bat slightly under 100 mph, but he hit it down the line and at a usable launch angle of 29 degrees.
Happ and Estrada get to take more cracks at Jones on the weekend as the Blue Jays seek to exit this season-opening tail spin. Sanchez, Friday’s starter, has only allowed two hits in 24 plate appearances to Jones but he’s walked him four times. Jones has eight hits in 22 plate appearances against Liriano, Thursday’s starter, including three home runs.
Related
- Can the Blue Jays rebound from their 1-6 start and make the playoffs? These four teams did
- Former Blue Jay Eric Thames, now with Brewers, returns to Toronto a totally different player
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