What you need to know about Rob Ford’s subway plan

Toronto Mayor Rob Ford laughs during Toronto city council budget deliberations at City Hall in Toronto Tuesday, January 15, 2013. The world-famous politician is doing well in the latest polls despite his reputation. Photo: Darren Calabrese/National Post

With just under two months to election day, Toronto Mayor Rob Ford has returned to a familiar refrain as he chases challenger John Tory in the polls.

It’s all about subways, subways, subways folks — pay no mind to his clumsy assertion last month that it’s about the economy, stupid.

And so Ford unveiled his transit plan Wednesday, and it includes a lot of subways.

Here’s what you need to know about Ford’s vision:

Ford says he can build all this for $9 billion.

Rob Ford’s long-term transit map as released to the media Wednesday.

All of it. That’s 32 kilometres of subways, so about $281 million a kilometre. That sounds expensive but it’s actually a steal. The TTC estimates the 7.6 kilometre Sheppard subway extension will cost $3.56 billion — or about $468 million a kilometre. So Ford thinks he can build subways for half price through subsidies like selling building rights over stations.

But there’s no timeline attached

Ford told reporters Tuesday that “subways take time” and attached no firm timeline to his plans.

The mayor also seems to think the Scarbourough subway is complete

Ford’s subway plan shows a completed Scarborough line. It won’t even start construction until 2018.

Not only is Ford promising to build numerous new lines, he’s also taking credit for a subway plan that’s not even through the Environmental Assessement phase. His transit plans shows a completed Scarborough Subway line, when the TTC doesn’t expect construction to begin until 2018 and completion until 2023.

That means Ford is offering no short-term relief for transit users

Ford’s relief would take years longer than many current transit users can wait. (Darren Calabrese/National Post)

Simplistic doesn’t even begin to describe most of Ford’s policies. And though his challengers proposals are equally pie-in-the-sky, Tory’s is an equally long-term solution, though he says he can build his SmartTrack —a “surface subway” that would achieve much of the relief line’s goals, he also promises increased bus service. Mayoral contestant Olivia Chow promises $15 million a year in immediate TTC funding to boost service on the busiest bus lines in addition to a future subway relief line.

Ford will scrap existing LRT plans

It’s no surprise that our surface-transit-hating chief magistrate would avoid future LRTs — there’s a ten-minute YouTube compilation of him repeating the word “subway” in council for a reason. But he also pledges that if re-elected he would cancel the LRTs underway for Finch West and Sheppard East. Ford also said he would bury the Eglinton Crosstown LRT that’s already under construction. Much of that line is already buried and when complete dedicated lanes will separate the line from traffic. Those facts don’t matter to Ford, however, as he continued his ardent position that subways are literally the only way to go. By contrast, Chow would reinstate the Scarborough LRT that’s shovel-ready and Tory’s transit plan is largely surface-rail based.

Billions in cash can be cobbled together from millions

Can Ford turn pennies into dollars? (Canadian Press photo)

Ford says he will work with the private sector and provincial and federal governments to help fund his plan, but he also says Toronto’s multi-billion slice can be bankrolled without raising taxes. Remember the current Toronto budget is $9.6 billion a year, so even if Ford could build all those lines for $9 billion, the city would still ahve to scrounge for the money. He says he can cobble billions from the Build Toronto — the city’s real estate development corporation which only projects $108 million a year in revenue over the next five years.

The bulk of Ford’s planned funding would come from future revenues

Toronto mayor Rob Ford laughs during an executive committee meeting. (Tyler Anderson/National Post)

Ford is following John Tory’s lead in proposing Tax Increment Financing to pay for his transit plan. That model has been employed in New York, where transit is being financed through expected revenues from development to follow. Except it hasn’t worked as well as planned in the Big Apple and likely won’t work any better in the Big Smoke.

Ford also promises to bank on “future assessment growth,” which sounds rather similar to TIF. His plan states:  “Each year Toronto’s tax base grows by millions of dollars. Instead of leaving these funds in a general pool for spending, I will allocate a portion of future assessment growth to fund my subway expansion plan.” Except every year the city budget already allocated over $1.6 billion a year to transit and this year alone gave the TTC an extra $25 million to improve service. That leaves about $8 billion in the pot for everything else the city runs. So even if revenues grew dramatically, let’s say by a $500 million a year, if Ford allotted half of that to transit, he would still fall far short of the billions required.

Only the TTC and Metrolinx offer fully costed plans

Metrolinx President and CEO Bruce McCuaig addresses the media during a press conference at the construction site of the Eglington Cross Town LRT line. (Colin O’Connor for the National Post)

Of all the candidates Chow’s vision for transit is the closest to what the TTC thinks it can employ effectively. Tory’s plan for a Regional Express Rail links well with some provincial visions for Metrolinx and GO service, while his SmartTrack plan isn’t based on any existing costed plan. But that’s still better than Ford, who wants to rip up existing, funded plans for subways in places where ridership can’t support them.

We’ve heard this all before 

In the 2010 election, Ford promised hundreds of kilometres of subways, roads and bike lanes. Essentially none of them have been built.