Fisher: Canadian fighter-bombers days away from joining battle against Islamic State

Postmedia News correspondent Matthew Fisher, bottom right, is seen near the Iraqi town of Tikrit in April 2003, with Lance-Cpl. Beau Mattioda (in the turret) and Lance-Cpl. Mark Catabay of the 1st Marine Expeditionary Unit. Photo: MATTHEW FISHER/Postmedia News file

IRBIL, Iraq — By the end of this week Ottawa is expected to order the RCAF to deploy CF-18 Hornet fighter-bombers to the Middle East to join the U.S.-led coalition that is bombing Islamic State.

One likely Canadian target may be found in the strategically important town of Tikrit where Islamic State murdered hundreds of Iraqis three months ago. Eleven years ago, the U.S. marines from an elite reconnaissance battalion that I was embedded with seized Saddam Hussein’s hometown, which is not far down the road from the Kurdish capital, Irbil.

There was great euphoria that night as the marines camped in the dirt below one of Saddam’s grandest palaces on the banks of the Tigris River. The marines and most Iraqis believed this had been the final battle of the second Gulf War and that peace was nigh.

Well, we all now know how that turned out.

It has taken Canada an unusually long time to decide what it will contribute, while its many allies in this war have made their plans known. Several small European countries already have dispatched F-16 Fighting Falcons to an air base in Jordan that has been used for years by the Americans. The British, understandably, have sent Tornados to Akrotiri, a base they have held on to since they stopped ruling Cyprus half a century ago. But the island in the eastern Mediterranean is a fair bit farther from Iraq and Syria than Jordan, which shares a long border with the countries where Islamic State has been on a murderous rampage, and therefore harder to operate fighter jets from.

U.S. warplanes are flying out of several bases in the Middle East.  Its stealthy fifth generation F-22 Raptors are launching from the United Arab Emirates. Other American fighter-bombers, airborne tankers and surveillance aircraft are flying out of Kuwait and Qatar. The U.S. navy and marines fly from a nuclear aircraft carrier and an assault ship in the Persian Gulf.

Canada’s jets and perhaps a CP-140 reconnaissance aircraft and a refuelling tanker could end up flying from one of many allied airfields in the Middle East or even from the Kurdish-run piece of northeastern Iraq. However, doing so from there might require measures to protect the aircraft on the ground.

Because the Harper government has, as usual, been far less free with information than its allies it is only speculation, but the delay in declaring what is up may have to do with a pending Turkish decision to allow European or North American warplanes to fly from airfields in the south of that country. It is possible air crews and maintainers may be invited to camp out there.

Australia has contributed 600 personnel compared with a Canadian total that could top out at less than 200. Australia already has a spy plane and an refuelling aircraft flying from the UAE. Its six F-18 Super Hornets, which are bigger, far newer and have longer legs than Canada’s Hornets, have not been cleared yet to join the air campaign from what used to be a joint Canadian-Australian base outside Dubai. But the Super Hornets have been flying simulated missions in the Middle East since Sunday.

Turkey has been reluctant to get involved in the wars in Syria and Iraq because of the Kurdish minorities there and its own restive Kurdish minority. But with Islamic State now fighting only a few minutes walk from at least one spot on the 1,000-kilometre border that Syria shares with Turkey, and an estimated 160,000 desperate Syrian Kurdish refugees joining a throng of Syrian Arab refugees in southern Turkey, a robust response from Ankara is anticipated.

Part of the Turkish equation may rest upon the expected declaration by Washington of a no-fly zone over northern Syria and Iraq. If so, Canadian warplanes likely would carry out combat air patrols as well as flying combat sorties.

Another question is whether Canadian planes will bomb targets in Syria and Iraq or only Iraq. Because of the greater danger of surface-to-air missiles over Syria, several European countries have declared they will attack only in Iraq.

Most U.S.-led air wars have resulted in few casualties because the enemies in Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan had poor air defences that easily could be neutralized. Presumably U.S. airstrikes already have eliminated most of the air defence weapons systems that Islamic State swiped from the Iraqi and Syrian armies. That should make it easier for Canadian Hornet pilots when they join the other coalition air forces gathered in the Middle East.

The Harper government must explain to Canadians that no war is risk free. It also should say, but won’t, that air power alone has no chance of rooting out Islamic State members who have disappeared into the population, and that western combat troops will be required at some point.